| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before July 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will attempt to remove the United States from the USMCA trade agreement. The question matters because an attempt to exit USMCA would affect trade policy, diplomatic relations with Canada and Mexico, and business planning for North American supply chains.
USMCA replaced NAFTA after negotiations driven by the Trump Administration and is implemented through a combination of international agreement and domestic law. Withdrawal or termination involves formal procedures and legal considerations, so a "try" can range from public threats to formal notice or administrative steps. Market participants therefore watch public statements, official filings, and actions by trade and legislative actors.
Prices in this prediction market summarize traders' views about whether an attempt will occur but do not guarantee outcomes; always consult the contract’s resolution criteria to know which actions count as an attempt.
Resolution depends on the contract’s language; generally, attempts that go beyond rhetorical comments—such as official instructions to agencies, filing formal notice with partner countries, or taking administrative steps that would initiate withdrawal—are the kinds of actions markets treat as an actual attempt. Check the market page for the exact resolution definition.
Key actors include the president (and White House advisers), the U.S. Trade Representative and State Department, Congress (which can shape or contest statutory authority), and Canadian and Mexican officials whose reactions affect feasibility; courts can also affect outcomes through legal challenges.
That depends on the legal route used: some steps require formal notices or involve statutory implementation that can prompt congressional or judicial responses. Unilateral executive action can be attempted but may face legal or legislative constraints, so practical removal is often more complex than a single announcement.
Monitor Trump's public statements, White House and USTR announcements, formal filings or notices to Canada and Mexico, relevant bills or hearings in Congress, official responses from Canadian and Mexican governments, and any related court filings.
Three-outcome contracts commonly map to outcomes like affirmative attempt, no attempt, and ambiguous/other or to different time windows; the exact labels and settlement rules are on the market’s contract page. Always read the event description and resolution criteria to understand how each outcome is defined and adjudicated.