| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3.7M | Trade → |
| Position abolished | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1.7M | Trade → |
| Alireza Arafi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1.5M | Trade → |
| Ali Larijani | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $598K | Trade → |
| Hassan Khomeini | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $586K | Trade → |
| Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $456K | Trade → |
| Sadeq Amoli Larijani | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $350K | Trade → |
| Mohammad Mahdi Mirbagheri | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $307K | Trade → |
| Mohsen Araki | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $171K | Trade → |
| Hashem Hosseini Bushehri | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $136K | Trade → |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $125K | Trade → |
| Ahmad Khatami | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $107K | Trade → |
| Mohsen Qomi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $98K | Trade → |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $75K | Trade → |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
This market tracks the future succession of the Supreme Leader of Iran, the most powerful political and religious authority in the country. Given the position's lifetime tenure, this event is critical for understanding the future trajectory of Iran’s domestic policies and regional foreign relations.
The Supreme Leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, an elected body of clerics. Succession is a highly sensitive process influenced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), ideological factions within the clerical establishment, and the current state of Iran's internal political landscape. The transition marks a pivotal moment for the Islamic Republic's governance structure.
Market prices represent the collective expectation regarding which candidate is most likely to secure the Assembly of Experts' approval and consolidate power following a vacancy.
The Supreme Leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of clerics who serve eight-year terms.
While the Assembly of Experts holds the constitutional authority to elect the leader, the Supreme Leader may signal preferences or appoint individuals to key councils that influence the selection process.
The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran mandates that the Assembly of Experts must meet as soon as possible to elect a new Supreme Leader, with a provisional council overseeing affairs in the interim.
The IRGC acts as a primary security guarantor for the state; its alignment with a candidate is often seen as a prerequisite for effective leadership and long-term stability.
The market settles based on the official determination of a vacancy in the office of the Supreme Leader, as established by the constitutional transition of power.