| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 70% | 68¢ | 70¢ | — | $2.5M | Trade → |
| Position abolished | 9% | 7¢ | 9¢ | — | $1.3M | Trade → |
| Alireza Arafi | 16% | 11¢ | 15¢ | — | $1.2M | Trade → |
| Ali Larijani | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $531K | Trade → |
| Hassan Khomeini | 8% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $477K | Trade → |
| Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $406K | Trade → |
| Sadeq Amoli Larijani | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $274K | Trade → |
| Mohammad Mahdi Mirbagheri | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $231K | Trade → |
| Mohsen Araki | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $127K | Trade → |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $105K | Trade → |
| Hashem Hosseini Bushehri | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $99K | Trade → |
| Ahmad Khatami | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $74K | Trade → |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $69K | Trade → |
| Mohsen Qomi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $68K | Trade → |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
This market asks which named individual will become Iran’s next Supreme Leader, with settlement tied to the death of the current officeholder. It matters because the Supreme Leader is Iran’s ultimate authority and the selection shapes domestic policy and regional strategy.
The Supreme Leader is chosen through Iran’s internal clerical and political mechanisms; historically succession has involved the Assembly of Experts, senior clerics, and influential security institutions. Factional balance within the clerical establishment, the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and broader political dynamics all shape potential successors.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of who is most likely to be named at the moment the contract’s settlement trigger occurs; because this contract settles on death, prices are a snapshot of expectations immediately before that trigger.
Per the contract title, the market is defined to settle upon the death of the sitting Supreme Leader; the final payout will be determined by the last traded price at that time. For precise operational details, consult the market’s contract specifications and exchange rules.
This market lists 15 named outcomes. The full list of names and any text descriptions are available on the market page; consult the contract page to see how outcomes are defined and whether there is an 'other' category or tie-breaking rule.
Because the contract explicitly references death as the settlement trigger, removal, resignation, or temporary incapacitation would not automatically settle the market unless the exchange’s official contract terms state otherwise. Always check the exchange’s precise settlement conditions.
The Assembly of Experts formally selects the Supreme Leader, but real-world selection typically reflects negotiation among senior clerics, the IRGC and security apparatus, and political factions; legitimacy within the clerical establishment and perceived ability to manage domestic and international pressures are key considerations.
Major events such as sudden regional conflict, large-scale protests, high-profile defections, or new sanctions can shift internal power balances and change which figures are seen as viable successors, causing rapid re-evaluation by market participants.