| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Crockett | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8.5M | Trade → |
| James Talarico | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5.8M | Trade → |
| Colin Allred | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $139K | Trade → |
| Beto O'Rourke | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $79K | Trade → |
| Julián Castro | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Ahmad Hassan | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Roland Gutierrez | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Terry Virts | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Carl Sherman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $624 | Trade → |
| Veronica Escobar | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $387 | Trade → |
| Scott Kelly | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $320 | Trade → |
| Nathan Johnson | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $278 | Trade → |
This market tracks which individual will secure the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas for the upcoming election cycle. Identifying the nominee is crucial as it determines the party's standard-bearer in a high-profile effort to challenge Republican incumbency in a major state.
Texas has historically been a stronghold for the Republican Party, making Democratic Senate primary contests a focal point for party strategy and resource allocation. Candidates must balance appealing to the progressive base during the primary while considering the broader, more moderate appeal necessary for a statewide general election. The selection process reflects broader shifts in Democratic organizational priorities and the evolving demographic landscape of the state.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding which candidate will ultimately appear on the ballot as the Democratic nominee. Fluctuations in these prices often reflect campaign momentum, endorsements, and shifts in internal polling or party support.
The nominee is determined through the results of the state's primary election or, if necessary, a runoff election where the candidate must secure a majority of the vote.
If a nominee withdraws, state election law and party rules dictate the procedures for selecting a replacement, which may involve party executive committees.
No, this market is specifically limited to the selection of the Democratic Party's nominee.
This market tracks the official major party nominee as recognized by the Texas Secretary of State; write-in candidates who do not secure the party nomination are generally not considered the nominee.
The primary date serves as the definitive deadline for the resolution of the market, as the official vote count confirms the party's choice for the general election ballot.