| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3.6M | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2.9M | Trade → |
| Before August | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $760K | Trade → |
This market tracks whether Iran will effectively obstruct maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for a continuous period of at least seven days. Given that nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption passes through this chokepoint, any disruption here would have profound implications for global energy markets and international security.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital transit route connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, serving as the primary maritime artery for oil exports from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. Iran has historically leveraged its geographical position to threaten closures in response to international sanctions or military tensions. However, such an act would likely trigger a significant global military response, particularly from the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet stationed in the region.
Market prices represent the collective assessment of traders regarding the likelihood of a sustained closure occurring within the specified timeframe, reflecting real-time intelligence and geopolitical analysis.
An effective closure implies that the flow of commercial shipping through the Strait is significantly halted or restricted by Iranian state action for a duration of seven or more consecutive days.
Generally, isolated incidents involving individual vessel seizures do not constitute an effective closure of the entire waterway unless they result in a systemic, multi-day stoppage of international transit.
The U.S. maintains a commitment to freedom of navigation in international waters; a massive naval response would likely be the primary deterrent against a full-scale, long-term blockade.
The criteria typically require a continuous seven-day period of disruption; the market terms specify the duration required to trigger a 'Yes' outcome.
There has never been a complete, total closure of the Strait of Hormuz in modern history, though the 'Tanker War' of the 1980s saw significant attacks on commercial vessels that severely disrupted traffic.