| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judy Shelton | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $115.4M | Trade → |
| Kevin Warsh | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $39M | Trade → |
| Rick Rieder | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14.4M | Trade → |
| Kevin Hassett | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13.2M | Trade → |
| Christopher Waller | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9.8M | Trade → |
| Michelle Bowman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9.7M | Trade → |
| Scott Bessent | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7M | Trade → |
| Stephen Miran | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5.2M | Trade → |
| Bill Pulte | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $564K | Trade → |
| David Zervos | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $507K | Trade → |
| Donald Trump (Himself) | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $414K | Trade → |
| Jerome Powell | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $323K | Trade → |
| David Malpass | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $264K | Trade → |
| Arthur Laffer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $243K | Trade → |
| Howard Lutnick | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $233K | Trade → |
| Lorie Logan | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $189K | Trade → |
| Larry Kudlow | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $164K | Trade → |
| James Bullard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $115K | Trade → |
| Marc Sumerlin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $103K | Trade → |
| Philip Jefferson | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $63K | Trade → |
| Larry Lindsey | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $47K | Trade → |
| Janet Yellen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| Ron Paul | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
This market tracks who will be nominated by Donald Trump to serve as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. The appointment of the Fed Chair is a critical decision that influences global monetary policy, interest rates, and long-term economic stability.
The Federal Reserve Chair position is technically subject to presidential nomination and Senate confirmation, serving four-year terms. Historically, presidents have prioritized candidates who align with their broader economic vision, whether focused on aggressive growth, inflation targeting, or specific regulatory approaches to banking.
Market valuations reflect the collective sentiment regarding a candidate’s alignment with Trump’s economic policy preferences and their perceived likelihood of securing Senate confirmation.
The market tracks nominations for the role; if the incumbent remains in place, the market reflects expectations for when a vacancy will be filled or if a successor will be named.
Yes, the list of outcomes includes various figures who have been speculated upon by political insiders, media, and market analysts.
The market participants factor in 'electability'—specifically whether a candidate has the political capital to clear the Senate confirmation hurdle.
If an incumbent is the formal nominee, the market will resolve in favor of that specific individual.
The market will close and settle once an official nomination has been made and confirmed by the relevant authorities.