| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judy Shelton | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $115.4M | Trade → |
| Kevin Warsh | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $39M | Trade → |
| Rick Rieder | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14.4M | Trade → |
| Kevin Hassett | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13.2M | Trade → |
| Christopher Waller | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9.8M | Trade → |
| Michelle Bowman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9.7M | Trade → |
| Scott Bessent | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7M | Trade → |
| Stephen Miran | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5.2M | Trade → |
| Bill Pulte | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $564K | Trade → |
| David Zervos | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $507K | Trade → |
| Donald Trump (Himself) | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $414K | Trade → |
| Jerome Powell | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $323K | Trade → |
| David Malpass | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $264K | Trade → |
| Arthur Laffer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $243K | Trade → |
| Howard Lutnick | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $233K | Trade → |
| Lorie Logan | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $189K | Trade → |
| Larry Kudlow | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $164K | Trade → |
| James Bullard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $115K | Trade → |
| Marc Sumerlin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $103K | Trade → |
| Philip Jefferson | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $63K | Trade → |
| Larry Lindsey | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $47K | Trade → |
| Janet Yellen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| Ron Paul | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
This market tracks who Donald Trump will nominate to lead the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States. The choice of Chair is one of the most significant presidential appointments, as it dictates the trajectory of American monetary policy, inflation management, and financial regulation.
The Federal Reserve Chair serves a four-year term, and appointments are subject to Senate confirmation. Historically, presidents weigh the nominee's stance on interest rates, independence from political pressure, and their alignment with the administration's broader economic growth strategy. This market captures market sentiment regarding potential candidates ranging from incumbent officials to economic advisors and academic experts.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of political insiders, economic analysts, and participants regarding which candidate will ultimately receive the formal nomination.
The Chair sets the agenda for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), influencing national interest rates, employment levels, and price stability.
A nomination typically occurs when the incumbent's term expires, or if a vacancy arises prematurely, requiring Senate approval.
Yes, once the President announces a nominee, the Senate must hold confirmation hearings and vote to approve the individual before they can take office.
If no nomination occurs within the timeframe specified by the market parameters, the contract will be resolved based on the specific market rules regarding expiration and outcomes.
Yes, a sitting Fed Chair can be nominated to serve subsequent terms, provided they are re-confirmed by the Senate.