| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Donald Trump will initiate a lawsuit naming Jerome Powell before the end of Trump's presidential term. It matters because litigation between a sitting or former president and the Federal Reserve chair would be an uncommon legal and political escalation with potential institutional and market implications.
Donald Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve policy and its chair in past years, creating a backdrop of political tension with the central bank. Suits directly involving a president and a Fed chair are rare; such actions raise questions about separation of powers, legal standing, and the independence of monetary institutions. The practical likelihood of a suit depends on legal theory, timing, and political incentives rather than purely rhetorical attacks.
Market prices on this contract aggregate traders' assessments about whether a filing will occur before the specified term end; they update as new information arrives. Treat prices as a real-time summary of market beliefs, not as legal verdicts or deterministic predictions.
For this market, 'sue Powell' means filing a formal civil complaint in a court that names Jerome H. Powell (in his official or individual capacity) as a defendant; public statements or threats that do not result in a filed legal complaint do not count.
The phrase refers to the remainder of Donald Trump's presidential term as defined by the U.S. Constitution or by the market’s event rules; the relevant cutoff is the official end of that term (e.g., the next inauguration), not an arbitrary calendar date.
The event refers to Jerome H. Powell in his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve System, the central-bank official most commonly referenced by that name in U.S. policy debates.
Potential claims could include constitutional challenges, claims under the Administrative Procedure Act, or allegations of ultra vires action by the Fed; success depends on establishing standing, a cognizable legal right, and fitting the dispute into a court-manageable legal framework.
A suit would typically begin with a federal filing, followed by motions to dismiss and jurisdictional challenges; courts may dismiss on grounds like lack of standing or the political-question doctrine, and any substantive dispute could take months or years to resolve through appeals.