| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Trump will sign any documents designated as Executive Orders during the week of March 15–21. The question matters because executive orders are a rapid tool for directing federal policy and can have legal, political, and market implications.
Historically, presidents use executive orders to implement policy unilaterally when legislation stalls or when immediate action is required; Trump used executive actions frequently during his prior administration. Whether an order appears in any given week depends on White House priorities, legal review, staffing capacity in the Office of the President, and external events that create urgency.
Prediction market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations based on available information and change as new information arrives. Use market odds alongside direct sources (White House schedules, press briefings, reputable reporting) and the market’s resolution rules when making decisions.
For this event, a qualifying act is the president applying a signature to a document officially designated as an 'Executive Order' within the event window; other instruments such as memoranda or proclamations do not count unless explicitly labeled as an Executive Order.
Yes—the relevant period is the week March 15 through March 21 inclusive; consult the market’s official rules for the precise time zone and cutoff used to determine the exact timestamps for signatures.
No—only documents formally issued and titled as 'Executive Orders' count; other policy instruments or verbal announcements without an EO designation typically do not meet the event definition.
In most resolution processes the decisive factor is the actual signature date, but markets often require verifiable public evidence (White House release, official filing, or reputable reporting) to confirm that a signature occurred within the window—check the market’s resolution standards for specifics.
External developments can increase the likelihood of an EO if they create legal or policy urgency (e.g., court deadlines, congressional inaction, security incidents), while stable conditions and ongoing legislative negotiations may reduce immediate incentive to act unilaterally.