| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Election Day | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will mount a campaign specifically characterized as a "third term" run for the U.S. presidency; it matters because such a decision would shape the 2028/next-cycle landscape, party dynamics, and voter strategy.
Donald Trump previously served as president and has been a frequent candidate in subsequent cycles; U.S. presidential eligibility is governed by the Constitution, including the 22nd Amendment, which limits elected presidents to two terms while allowing non‑consecutive service so long as the two‑term limit is not exceeded. Markets like this aggregate public expectations about whether Trump will take the concrete legal and political steps that the contract specifies.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders about whether the contract's specified conditions will be met and update as news, legal events, or political developments occur; they are indicators of expectations, not guarantees.
Resolution follows the contract text on Kalshi; typically the market looks for formal, verifiable campaign actions specified by the contract (for example a public declaration or FEC filing) prior to the market’s close — check the exchange’s official resolution language for exact criteria.
Because the close date is TBD, the relevant deadline is whatever the exchange sets when it finalizes the contract; traders should watch the market page for updates and the exchange’s resolution timeline.
The 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two elected terms, so any interpretation of a "third term" must be consistent with that rule; non‑consecutive service is historically possible but total service cannot exceed two elected terms under the amendment.
Criminal charges alone do not automatically bar candidacy under current federal law; however, convictions, incarceration, court rulings on ballot access, or other legal outcomes can materially affect the feasibility of a campaign and will influence market expectations.
The four outcomes represent mutually exclusive resolution possibilities specified by the contract (for example: different timing windows, definitions of a run, or other scenario splits); consult the contract’s outcome descriptions on Kalshi to know which outcome corresponds to which scenario before placing trades.