| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before his term ends | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will voluntarily resign from the presidency at any point during his current term. It matters because resignation would be an immediate, definitive change in leadership with legal and political consequences for succession and policy.
Resignations by sitting presidents are historically rare; U.S. precedent includes a handful of high-profile departures, most notably Richard Nixon in 1974. A modern-era resignation would interact with ongoing legal cases, internal White House dynamics, congressional pressure, and broader electoral calculations. Media coverage, public opinion, and actions by political allies or opponents all shape the environment around such a decision.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of traders and update as new information or events occur. Use them as a real-time signal of how the crowd interprets developments relevant to the question of a voluntary resignation.
A resignation means the president voluntarily submits a formal resignation that takes effect during the term, resulting in the vice president immediately assuming the presidency under normal constitutional procedures.
No; impeachment conviction, a 25th Amendment involuntary transfer, or other forced removals are distinct outcomes and do not qualify as a voluntary resignation unless the president separately and voluntarily submits a resignation.
Yes, a resignation that is announced and specifies an effective date during the current term typically counts if the formal resignation is valid and the effective date falls within the term covered by the market; check the market operator's settlement rules for precise timing criteria.
Key influencers include the vice president and Cabinet, senior White House advisors, congressional leaders of the president's party, major donors and political allies, and legal or medical advisors whose counsel may change the president's assessment of remaining in office.
A 'Closes: TBD' listing means the market remains open until the operator sets a closing date; trading can continue while the market is open and outcomes are settled according to the operator's published rules once the event condition is resolved.