| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Donald Trump will cause previously unreleased documents, photos, videos, or official records related to unidentified aerial phenomena (UFOs/UAPs) to become public before 2027. The outcome matters for national-security transparency, political messaging, and ongoing public interest in UAP investigations.
Since 2020, U.S. agencies have produced several reports and broadened official attention to UAPs, generating public requests for more records and occasional leaks. Declassification and disclosure are governed by agencies such as the Department of Defense, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and by statutes, FOIA requests, congressional oversight, and presidential authority.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of traders about the likelihood of public release by the stated deadline and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees. Use market movement together with primary-source announcements (agency statements, court filings, executive actions) to track changes in the underlying probability.
A “new” file means documents, images, videos, recordings, or official reports about UAPs/UFOs that were not already publicly available in full prior to the release; republication of already public material or commentary does not qualify.
No. A release could occur via presidential declassification if he were president, but it could also happen if he or associates possess and publish previously unreleased material, if agencies declassify in response to pressure, or if courts order disclosure.
Many UAP-related records may be classified; declassification requires review by classification authorities and agencies can withhold material for national-security reasons. Even presidential declassification can face practical obstacles if records are physically controlled by agencies or involve third-party sensitive sources.
Congress has subpoena and oversight tools that can pressure agencies or individuals to produce records, and courts can compel disclosure through litigation; however, national-security exemptions, negotiated settlements, or executive resistance can limit or delay compelled releases.
Moves would follow direct announcements of declassification, confirmed leaks of previously unseen files, subpoenas or sworn testimony indicating new holdings, court orders or filings revealing unreleased material, or clear public statements from Trump or relevant agencies about plans to release files.