| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will issue a presidential pardon to any member of his family; it matters because pardons are an exercise of executive clemency with political, legal, and public-opinion implications. Markets like this aggregate informed views about that possibility.
Historically, presidential pardons have been used for a wide range of federal offenses and sometimes generate controversy when used for allies or associates. The question of pardoning family members has high political salience because it raises questions about conflict of interest, norms of governance, and the interaction between legal exposure and presidential power. Resolution depends on whether a formal act of clemency is publicly documented during the period covered by the market.
Prediction market prices reflect collective assessment of whether a qualifying pardon will be issued; they are not legal rulings and can move quickly as new facts, statements, or legal developments emerge. For outcome determination, consult the market's official resolution criteria for definitions and timing.
Most markets treat a pardon as a formal act of executive clemency documented by an official White House release or the Department of Justice/Office of the Pardon Attorney; check the event’s resolution rules for the market’s authoritative definition.
Markets may rely on a plain-language family definition—spouse, children, parents, siblings, in-laws, and sometimes extended family—or defer to the market’s published resolution criteria; consult the event page for the precise list used to adjudicate outcomes.
Commutations and pardons are legally distinct; whether either qualifies depends on the market’s resolution language. A preemptive pardon can be legally issued for federal offenses, but confirmation of whether it meets this market’s criteria requires checking the event rules.
No—this event focuses on presidential clemency (federal) unless the market explicitly states otherwise; state or foreign executive clemency would generally not resolve this market.
Resolution typically relies on verifiable, authoritative public records or official statements; if ambiguity persists, the market operator’s dispute or adjudication process and published rules determine the outcome.