| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Trump will secure a new free trade agreement; it matters because trade deals affect tariffs, supply chains, and political support among businesses and voters.
Historically, Trump pursued bilateral and selective trade deals, renegotiated NAFTA into USMCA, withdrew from some multilateral initiatives, and used tariffs as leverage. Any new agreement would sit against that record and interact with Congress, trading partners, and ongoing geopolitical and economic pressures.
Market prices aggregate public information and participants' judgments about the likelihood of the event, and they will move as new official announcements, negotiations, or legislative actions occur.
Typically this means a formally announced reciprocal trade agreement between the U.S. (under the named administration) and one or more foreign governments that is presented as a new agreement distinct from existing treaties; consult the market’s resolution rules to confirm the exact definition used.
No, an announcement of negotiations is usually a preliminary step; most markets require a concrete, formal agreement or signed text rather than mere negotiation announcements—check the event's resolution criteria.
Key actors include the president and trade negotiators (e.g., U.S. Trade Representative), counterpart governments and leaders, relevant executive agencies, and Congress if legislative approval or implementing legislation is required.
Watch for official statements from the administration or partner governments, scheduling of bilateral meetings or trade delegations, release or leak of draft texts, signing ceremonies, and any Congressional hearings or votes tied to the deal.
Even after a signed agreement, congressional approval or implementing legislation can be required and may delay or block implementation; some deals can be enacted by executive authority, so the legal route influences both the timing and the likelihood of a finalized agreement.