| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will invoke the Taft-Hartley Act at any point during his presidency. The question matters because use of Taft-Hartley is a major federal intervention in labor disputes with legal and political consequences.
The Taft-Hartley Act (Labor Management Relations Act of 1947) gives the federal government tools — most prominently the ability to seek a court-ordered cooling-off period — to address strikes the president declares a threat to national health or safety. Invocation of the Act is rare and typically reserved for high-profile labor disruptions that risk broader economic or public safety impacts; it often triggers significant legal challenges and political backlash.
Market prices reflect participants’ collective expectations about whether this specific action will occur during the indicated presidency. Use the market as a real-time signal of how observers assess relevant events, not as a definitive prediction.
For this market, 'invoking' means the president (or the administration acting on the president’s authority) formally seeking to use Taft-Hartley mechanisms — typically by directing an action that results in a federal filing seeking a court-ordered cooling-off period or similar injunction under the Act.
Yes. The timeframe covers any official action taken while Trump is president, including public directives, administrative steps, or formal filings in federal court that explicitly invoke Taft-Hartley authority.
Taft-Hartley is aimed at private-sector labor disputes that affect interstate commerce or are certified by the administration as a national health or safety emergency; public-sector labor relations are generally governed by state law and are not covered by Taft-Hartley in the same way.
Key decision-makers typically include the president, White House advisors, the Labor Department and Secretary, the Attorney General and DOJ attorneys, and White House Counsel; the process generally involves an internal determination, a public statement or directive, and formal filings in federal court seeking an injunction or cooling-off period.
A clear signal would be an official White House announcement or administration statement citing Taft-Hartley, followed by a public filing or motion in federal court requesting a court-ordered cooling-off period or injunction under the Act.