| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before March 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before February 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Jan 19, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act. The question matters because invocation would be a major legal and political step with direct implications for federal domestic troop deployments and civil-military relations.
The Insurrection Act is a set of federal statutes that allow the President in certain circumstances to deploy U.S. armed forces to restore order or enforce federal law domestically. Historically the Act has been used rarely and is treated as an extraordinary measure; debates over its use involve legal thresholds, military policy, and political ramifications. Current political polarization and legal scrutiny mean any move toward invocation would draw intense attention from courts, Congress, state officials, and the public.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' beliefs based on public signals (statements, legal filings, official orders, major incidents) but are not certainties. Odds can change quickly as new information emerges and should be interpreted as evolving market consensus rather than definitive forecasts.
Resolution typically requires an explicit, documented invocation by the President or a clear administrative order citing the Insurrection Act; press comments or informal remarks alone may not meet the market's resolution standards. Refer to the market's official rules for the exact evidence standards used by the adjudicators.
No — deployment under other authorities (for example, federalizing a state's National Guard or using Title 10/Title 32 authorities) is legally distinct from invoking the Insurrection Act; the market focuses on an explicit invocation of the Act itself rather than any federal troop presence.
A TBD close means the market remains open until the organizer sets a closing date or resolution trigger; traders should monitor the market page for updates because standing rules and cutoffs (e.g., final date for possible invocation) determine eligibility for trades and resolution.
Key actors include the White House (President and senior advisors), the Justice Department for legal justification, the Department of Defense and uniformed military leaders for implementation decisions, state governors regarding National Guard coordination, and Congress and federal courts that can constrain or challenge actions.
Past invocations have been rare and politically contentious, typically reserved for exceptional situations; that history suggests high legal and political barriers, so traders should weigh precedent, institutional resistance, and the significant scrutiny any invocation would attract when evaluating this market.