| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will make an on-air appearance on Saturday Night Live at any point during a potential second presidential term. It matters because such an appearance would be a high-profile blending of entertainment and presidential communications with implications for media strategy and public perception.
Saturday Night Live has long intersected with US politics, both by hosting politicians and by satirizing them; Trump has a documented history with the program as both a subject of sketches and as someone who has appeared on the show. A second presidential term would create a defined window during which a live or pre-recorded on-air appearance on SNL could occur, and decisions by the president, the showrunners, and the network would all shape whether that happens.
Market prices reflect participants' aggregated expectations about whether an on-air appearance will occur during the second term and will move as new information emerges (bookings, public statements, negotiations). Use prices as a real-time indicator of how bettors interpret the likelihood given current evidence, not as a fixed fact.
For this market, the outcome hinges on an on-air appearance by Donald Trump himself during an episode of Saturday Night Live within the defined second-term window; archival footage, stand-ins, or mentions do not constitute an appearance. The exchange will use its published resolution rules to determine whether a specific instance meets the contract definition.
The applicable period is the official duration of the second presidential term (from the second-term inauguration date through the end of that four-year term). Any appearance must occur on-air within those calendar dates to count.
A pre-recorded or remote segment that is broadcast as part of the SNL episode and features Trump on-screen would generally meet the plain-language definition of an appearance, but final determination will follow the exchange's resolution criteria and publicly available evidence.
No. The market specifically requires Donald Trump himself to appear on-air during an SNL episode; appearances by others, impersonations, or recycled archival footage do not satisfy that requirement.
The exchange hosting the contract (Kalshi) is responsible for final resolution and will rely on its event terms and available public documentation (video, official program listings, network statements). Traders should consult the contract terms and any official rulings for authoritative guidance.