| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether President Trump will end (abolish or replace) the Federal Reserve System before 2027; the outcome would have major implications for U.S. monetary policy, markets, and institutional governance.
The Federal Reserve is a statutory central bank created by Congress in 1913; any formal abolition or major replacement requires an act of Congress and a signed bill from the president, and would likely prompt litigation. Debates over Fed independence, structure, and mandates have recurred across administrations, and proposals to alter or eliminate the Fed have been discussed by some policymakers and commentators.
Market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of the political, legal, and logistical plausibility that the Fed could be ended before 2027 and update as new developments occur. Use prices as a summary of evolving information, not definitive forecasts.
Congress would need to pass legislation that abolishes or replaces the Fed and transfers its authorities, and the president would need to sign that law; the statute would also need to address transitional arrangements for monetary operations, supervision, and liabilities and would be subject to judicial review.
No—abolishing or fully replacing the Fed requires statutory change by Congress; a president can use executive measures to influence policy, nominations, and regulation, but cannot unilaterally abolish a federal agency created by law.
The deadline imposes a hard legislative and implementation constraint: substantial institutional change must be proposed, enacted, and at least initiated before the end date, which compresses the window for debate, committee work, passage, and transition planning.
The president, congressional leadership and relevant committees (e.g., House Financial Services, Senate Banking), key committee chairs and rank-and-file votes in both chambers, the Federal Reserve leadership, and ultimately federal courts would all influence the outcome.
Legislation would need to specify where monetary authority, currency issuance, lender-of-last-resort functions, and bank supervision transfer to, provide for continuity of contracts and reserves, and establish a transition plan to avoid market disruption.