| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before June 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will cause federal individual income tax to be eliminated for taxpayers with incomes under $150,000. The outcome matters because such a change would be a major fiscal and distributional shift affecting millions of households and federal revenues.
A permanent or temporary end to federal income tax for a defined income group requires changes to the Internal Revenue Code, which has historically been altered through Congressional legislation and occasional executive or regulatory adjustments. Political alignment between the Presidency and Congress, budgetary tradeoffs, and past proposals on taxes and tax cuts provide important context for assessing feasibility.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of traders about whether the contract’s written resolution conditions will be met; they update as legislative, executive, judicial, and political developments occur. Interpret prices as real-time signals of perceived plausibility, not guarantees of outcome.
Eliminating federal income tax liability for a defined group would generally require amending the Internal Revenue Code through an act of Congress (signed into law by the President). Administrative guidance or temporary credits cannot fully repeal statutory tax liability; resolution depends on the market’s contract language.
Primary actors are Congress (House and Senate) and the President for statutory changes; Senate procedural leaders and committees control floor timing; the Treasury and IRS implement changes administratively; courts could adjudicate disputes over interpretation or constitutionality.
Resolution hinges on the contract’s written definitions—commonly specifying whether $150k refers to individual adjusted gross income, taxable income, or household income and which tax year(s) are covered—so you must consult the event’s resolution language to know which measure applies.
Because the contract’s close date is TBD, the relevant benchmarks are those in the resolution text—usually the enactment date of qualifying legislation and the statute’s effective date or the tax year it applies to. Absent those specifics, enacted law with a clear effective date that meets the contract terms is typically required.
That depends on the event’s resolution criteria. In many legal and policy senses, temporary credits or deferrals differ from eliminating statutory income tax liability; whether they count will be determined by the precise contractual definition of 'end income tax' in the market.