| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald J. Trump will cause a new country to be placed under an embargo. The outcome matters because an embargo is a major foreign-policy and economic action with wide diplomatic and commercial effects.
Historically, U.S. embargoes have been rare and typically formalized by presidential proclamation, statute, or coordinated multilateral action (examples include long-standing policies toward Cuba and broad restrictions tied to Iran). The Trump presidency and subsequent political activity have featured frequent use of sanctions, tariffs, and executive instruments, but not every sanctions or trade restriction is legally or practically equivalent to a full embargo.
Market odds reflect how traders collectively price the likelihood of a specified outcome given available information and will move as new developments occur. Interpret prices as a snapshot of market consensus and consult the event’s official resolution criteria to understand what counts as a qualifying embargo.
Most resolutions treat an embargo 'by Trump' as a formal U.S. embargo imposed while Donald J. Trump is acting in an official capacity with authority to direct U.S. foreign policy (for example, as President); private statements or non-governmental actions typically do not qualify. Check the event’s official resolution rules for the definitive interpretation.
An embargo in this context generally means a comprehensive prohibition on trade or most commercial activity with a country, typically enacted through a presidential proclamation, executive order, statute, or regulatory regime. Targeted sanctions, selective restrictions, or routine tariffs usually do not meet the threshold unless the market’s resolution criteria say otherwise.
Authoritative sources include official White House announcements, presidential proclamations or executive orders, entries in the Federal Register, Department of State declarations, and Treasury/OFAC regulatory actions or listings. The market operator’s resolution guidelines will list which sources it will accept.
Ambiguous, partial, or sector-specific measures may not satisfy a market’s definition of a full embargo; resolution depends on the precise wording of the event and the market’s adjudication rules. Disputes are typically resolved by the platform according to its published dispute and resolution process.
Watch rapid escalations in bilateral crises, credible allegations of severe misconduct by a foreign government, coordinated international moves to isolate a state, public calls from key congressional leaders or allies for a ban, and official preparatory steps such as rulemaking drafts or executive-branch legal memos.