| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before January 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald J. Trump will complete a purchase of at least part of Greenland. The question matters because a sale of sovereign territory would involve diplomacy, questions of sovereignty and local consent, and broad geopolitical consequences.
Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark with its own government and broad control over local matters; ultimate sovereignty rests with Denmark. The idea of buying territory has historical precedents (for example, the U.S. purchase of Alaska) but in the modern era would require complex negotiations among multiple governments and actors.
Market prices here represent participants' aggregated assessments of whether a qualifying purchase will ultimately occur; prices move as new diplomatic, legal, or political information becomes available. They are not guarantees but real‑time summaries of changing beliefs and information.
A qualifying outcome requires a completed, legally binding transfer of territory or land rights that meets the market’s contract definition and is recognized by the relevant authorities; tentative proposals or statements of interest do not by themselves qualify. Read the market's resolution terms for the precise legal standard used.
Because Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, any transfer of sovereignty would require Danish government involvement and very likely Greenlandic government consent; if the transaction is to be treated as a change of title or sovereignty, relevant Danish and Greenlandic legal processes must be satisfied. Private purchases of specific parcels would additionally require compliance with Danish/Greenlandic property law.
No. Nonbinding agreements, proposals, letters of intent, or public comments are not sufficient; the market looks for a completed, legally effective transfer as defined in the contract language.
Significant obstacles include Danish constitutional and statutory requirements, Greenlandic autonomy and potential need for local approvals or referenda, international law norms on territorial changes, and practical issues like financing and implementation of sovereignty transfer.
Resolution depends on whether Donald J. Trump, in whatever capacity specified by the market contract, completes the qualifying purchase before the market’s close date; whether he acts as an officeholder or private individual can change legal pathways and political dynamics, but the contract’s definitions determine which actions count.