| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will be formally impeached through the federal House of Representatives process; it matters because impeachment is a constitutionally significant political event that can reshape legislative and electoral dynamics.
Impeachment is a two-step constitutional process: the House of Representatives can approve articles of impeachment, and the Senate may then hold a trial to decide conviction. Historically, impeachment has been rare and politically consequential; outcomes depend on congressional majorities, procedural decisions in committees, and evolving investigative or legal developments.
Prices in this prediction market reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about whether the exchange’s event conditions for impeachment will be met; they are not legal determinations and should be read as collective forecasts, not certainties.
For settlement, 'impeached' means the market’s exchange-defined condition is met, typically an official, recorded approval of one or more articles of impeachment by the U.S. House of Representatives; check the market detail for the exchange’s explicit wording and sources used for verification.
Markets with four outcomes often separate combinations such as: (1) House impeaches and Senate convicts, (2) House impeaches but Senate acquits, (3) House does not impeach by the market’s close, and (4) other resolution/ambiguous or procedural outcomes; consult the specific outcome descriptions in the market rules to see the exact mapping.
Primary decision-makers are members of the House (committee chairs and floor leaders), relevant investigative committees, and House leadership who control which measures reach the floor; the Senate’s role affects post-impeachment conviction but typically matters for multi-outcome markets that separate conviction from impeachment.
A TBD close means the exchange has not set a final cutoff; traders should monitor the market page and exchange notices for an announced close and settlement rules, and understand that late-breaking official actions may occur before the formal close that determine the outcome.
Settlement is governed by the exchange’s specified resolution criteria and official records; while new developments can influence trading, the market will resolve based on the documented congressional actions or other sources named in the rules and any cutoff times the exchange specifies.