| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before his term ends | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Donald Trump will be both impeached by the House and subsequently convicted by the Senate and removed from office. It matters because removal requires both chambers to act and would immediately end his presidency if achieved.
Impeachment is a two-step constitutional process: the House can approve articles of impeachment, and the Senate holds a trial that can convict and remove with a supermajority. Impeachment of presidents has occurred in U.S. history, but conviction and removal by the Senate are rare and require broad bipartisan support.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregate expectations about whether both the House and the Senate will complete the necessary steps to effect removal. Prices move as news, votes, investigations, and procedural developments change the perceived likelihood of both steps occurring.
For the market to resolve as 'Yes', the House must adopt articles of impeachment and the Senate must convict and order removal from office; impeachment alone without conviction does not meet that outcome.
The House of Representatives votes to impeach (approve articles), and the Senate conducts a trial; conviction by the Senate results in removal from office.
A resignation would leave the office through a different mechanism, not removal by Senate conviction; most contract definitions and conventional interpretation treat resignation before conviction as preventing a 'removed by impeachment' outcome, but consult the market’s official terms for specifics.
Yes. Even with House impeachment, removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote; procedural rules, timing, and party unity in the Senate are central to whether conviction and removal occur.
Monitor formal House committee reports, introduction and scheduling of articles, official House floor votes, Senate trial rules and calendar, public statements from key swing Senators, major legal findings, and any resignation or succession actions.