| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether an earthquake of at least magnitude 8.0 will occur within the geographic bounds of California before 2028. The outcome matters because an event of that size would have large consequences for public safety, infrastructure resilience, and emergency planning.
California lies across an active plate boundary system (Pacific and North American plates) with many well-studied faults such as the San Andreas system; most large regional earthquakes historically fall below the threshold of magnitude 8.0, though very large earthquakes globally tend to occur on subduction zones. Seismologists use instrumental records, paleoseismic data, and fault-rupture models to estimate long-term potential but short-term prediction of specific large events remains uncertain.
Market prices reflect the aggregate judgment of traders about whether the contract conditions will be met and will change as new seismic reports or scientific information appear. Treat prices as a collective, real-time signal that updates with authoritative agency reports and new data.
Settlement typically uses the epicenter location reported by the contract's designated authoritative source (commonly the USGS); that reported location is compared to the geographic boundary definition in the contract terms—check the contract text for the exact boundary and source used for settlement.
Large events are commonly reported using the moment magnitude scale (Mw), and markets generally rely on the magnitude value published by the verifying agency named in the contract; consult the contract settlement rules for the definitive reporting agency and scale.
Any single earthquake that meets or exceeds the magnitude threshold and falls within the contract's geographic definition will satisfy the condition; the first qualifying event that meets the contract criteria before the deadline is typically decisive.
Instrumental and historical records show that earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater are rare within California's modern record; scientists use paleoseismic studies and fault-rupture models to assess long-term potential, but those analyses do not provide precise short-term timing.
Authoritative agency updates (magnitude/location revisions), discovery or recharacterization of a fault capable of very large rupture, large foreshock sequences, or significant new scientific analyses or hazard-model revisions are the types of developments most likely to change market assessments.