| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° to 64° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $532K | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $325K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $123K | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $109K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest reported air temperature in Chicago will be on March 10, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature outcomes drive weather-sensitive decisions and reflect synoptic-scale conditions. Participants trade based on expectations for that specific calendar day at the official reporting site named in the contract.
Chicago weather in early March is highly variable as the region transitions from winter to spring, with possible influence from late-season Arctic intrusions, Pacific-sourced storms, or early warm surges from the Gulf. Historic variability and urban effects mean a wide range of plausible highs on a single date, and climatology provides a baseline but not a prediction. The market aggregates many traders' information and expectations about those competing influences for March 10, 2026.
Market prices reflect collective forecasting about which outcome range will contain the official maximum temperature on the specified date; interpret prices as a real-time summary of trader beliefs and information, not as deterministic forecasts. Always consult the contract rules for the exact definition of the measured quantity and the official data source used to settle the event.
Settlement is based on the official temperature reported by the data source specified in the Kalshi contract—typically an NWS official Chicago-area station—and the contract rules define the observation period and verification procedure; check the market contract for the precise source and methodology.
The market contract names the official reporting station used for settlement; that station (for example, an NWS station at an airport or a designated city site) is the authoritative source—consult the event page or contract to see which site is used.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range or bucket listed on the event page; the exact numeric bounds of those ranges are shown on the market listing and determine which outcome wins when the official maximum is published.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; Kalshi will update the market with a firm trading close and the settlement timing, which typically occurs after the official observation for the specified date has been published and verified.
All observations are recorded according to the reporting agency's time convention as specified in the contract; because March 10, 2026 falls after the DST change in March, check the contract for whether times are reported in local time or UTC and how the 24-hour observation window is defined.