| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $375K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $110K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $73K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 6% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Boston on March 4, 2026; it matters to traders and stakeholders who hedge or speculate on near-term weather outcomes that can affect energy, transportation, and public safety.
Early March in Boston is a transitional month with large day-to-day variability: cold continental air masses, warm southerly intrusions, or coastal storms (Nor'easters) can all produce very different highs. Long-term warming trends have shifted seasonal baselines modestly, but synoptic-scale patterns and local conditions still drive most day-to-day extremes.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about which temperature range the official observing station will report as the daily maximum; interpret prices as consensus signals, not guarantees. Always confirm the market's settlement definition (station, measurement method, and time window) before trading.
Settlement is determined by the market's official contract specification; typically that will be the daily maximum temperature reported by the designated NOAA/NWS station for Boston (often the KBOS/Logan ASOS or another specified NCEI station) over the local calendar day—check the market page for the precise station and measurement definition.
The market's close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD for this listing); settlement occurs after the official daily maximum is published by the nominated observation source — publication timing varies but is commonly within 24–48 hours of the observation and will follow the contract's settlement rules.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific, non-overlapping temperature range defined on the market page; once the official maximum is identified, the single outcome whose range contains that value is declared the winning outcome and settles accordingly.
Key sources include global models (ECMWF, GFS), regional ensembles and MOS guidance, the National Weather Service Boston forecast discussions, and real-time observations such as METAR/ASOS at KBOS and nearby surface stations; watching frontal analyses and ensemble spread helps assess timing uncertainty.
Potential issues include instrument malfunctions, missing or later-corrected official data, ambiguity about the designated station, or post-event data corrections; contract-specific dispute-resolution rules and the named official data source determine how such issues are handled.