| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1.1M | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| 38° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 3, 2026 will be. It matters because single-day temperature extremes affect energy demand, travel, public safety, and short-term weather-sensitive markets.
Chicago weather in early March sits in a transitional season where outbreaks of Arctic air can alternate with warm Pacific or southern air masses. Local outcomes on a single day depend heavily on the large-scale storm track that week and on nearshore effects from Lake Michigan. Historical variability on early March dates is large, so single-day forecasts can shift substantially as observations and model runs update.
Prediction market prices reflect collective assessment of the range of plausible temperatures given current forecasts and observations; they move as models update, new observations arrive, and traders incorporate risk preferences. Use market odds as a real-time synthesis of available information, not as a deterministic forecast.
Check the market's official description or rulebook: some events specify a particular National Weather Service station (e.g., O'Hare or Midway), while others use a citywide official reporting site. If the market page doesn't specify, the exchange's resolution policy will define the data source.
Most single-day temperature markets use the calendar day from 00:00 to 23:59 local standard time at the reporting station. For March 3, 2026, that is Central Standard Time (DST in the U.S. begins March 8, 2026). Confirm the exact window in the event rules.
Lake Michigan commonly creates sharp gradients over short distances: nearshore sites can be several degrees cooler than inland locations under onshore flow. If the market uses a single official station, the local lake influence on that station determines the resolved value; if multiple stations could be used, consult the event rules.
Exchanges and market rules usually outline a contingency: they may use backup stations, quality-controlled reanalysis, or NWS-verified data. Review the event's dispute and resolution procedures to see which fallback applies.
Model consistency often improves within 24–72 hours of the target day. Before that window, forecasts are more sensitive to changes in the storm track. Short-term observations (surface temps, satellite, radiosonde updates) and high-resolution mesoscale models are most informative within the last 48 hours.