| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $249K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $159K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $142K | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 28% | 21¢ | 25¢ | — | $118K | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $103K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 75% | 77¢ | 82¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in New York City on March 11, 2026. It matters for planners, energy managers, and weather-sensitive decisions because a single-day temperature extreme can affect demand, transportation, and short-term risk assessments.
March is a transitional month in the Northeast with large day-to-day swings driven by the position of the jet stream and timing of synoptic systems. Recent decades of climate warming have shifted the distribution of daily highs, increasing the frequency of unusually warm March days while cold intrusions still occur. Short-term forecasts in the week before the date generally provide the most useful information for expected highs.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations based on available forecasts and new information; they update as models, observations, and expert opinions change. Treat prices as a continuously updated signal, not a guaranteed outcome—settlement will follow the contract’s specified observation and rules.
Settlement will use the official temperature observation specified in the contract text; many NYC temperature contracts reference the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for a designated official station (check the contract to confirm which station and source is authoritative).
The contract defines the measurement window—typically the local-calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) for the designated station—but you must confirm the exact start/end times in the event’s rules.
Settlement policy in the contract governs missing or revised data; common approaches include using the final official observation published by the designated source, or falling back to an alternate station or aggregated official dataset as specified in the rules.
Major drivers are model shifts in frontal timing, emergence or weakening of clouds/precipitation in short‑range models, changes in predicted wind direction (onshore vs. offshore), and any rapidly developing coastal storms or warm-air advection that alter expected daytime heating.
The market’s outcomes correspond to pre-defined temperature bins or ranges listed on the market page; settlement maps the single observed highest temperature on Mar 11 at the designated station into the outcome bin per the contract’s bin definitions.