| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater will occur within the geographic bounds of California before 2027. The outcome matters because an event of that size would have major implications for hazard planning, infrastructure, and emergency response in the state.
California sits on a complex plate boundary dominated by the San Andreas fault system and numerous companion faults; most large earthquakes in the state are generated by strike-slip faults, with occasional very large ruptures on long fault segments or linked multi-fault events. Instrumental and geological records show that truly giant earthquakes are relatively rare in California, while monitoring networks (USGS and others) continuously update location and magnitude estimates. Resolution of this market depends on authoritative seismic catalogs and the contract's specific rules about location, magnitude scale, and timing.
Market prices reflect trader expectations based on available science, observation, and news, but they do not replace authoritative seismic assessments. Consult the contract rules and official seismic agencies (USGS, international catalogs) for the definitive record used to resolve the question.
Resolution typically follows the contract's geographic definition; that generally means earthquakes located within the state's onshore boundaries and any offshore areas the contract or exchange specifies. Check the market's official rules for the precise location definition used to settle the contract.
Most authoritative catalogs use moment magnitude (Mw) for large earthquakes; markets usually defer to the catalogs named in the contract (for example, USGS or an international catalog) and to the magnitude values those catalogs publish or finalize.
Preliminary detections and magnitude estimates can appear within minutes to hours, but agencies often revise large-event magnitudes over days. The market will resolve based on the official catalog and timing rules specified in the contract, which can include waiting for a final, confirmed magnitude.
Very large ruptures would most plausibly involve very long fault segments or linked multi-fault ruptures such as major portions of the San Andreas system or large offshore structures; some offshore megathrust segments outside the typical California interior could also produce very large events if their rupture extends into state waters.
Instrumental records and paleoseismology show that earthquakes of the largest sizes are uncommon on human timescales; geological studies identify which faults have produced very large ruptures in the past and help estimate recurrence behavior, but timing of the next large event remains uncertain and is assessed probabilistically rather than predictively.