| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2050 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether global average temperatures will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above pre‑industrial levels at any point before 2050. The question matters because crossing that threshold is widely used as a marker for large-scale climate impacts and for assessing progress on international climate goals.
Scientific assessments and international agreements have focused on limiting warming to well below 2°C, making this threshold a common policy benchmark. Observed warming since pre‑industrial times is already substantial, and the trajectory toward 2050 depends on emissions trends, policy implementation, and climate system responses.
Market prices aggregate traders’ views about how current information maps to the event’s outcome and will update as new climate data, policy actions, or technological developments emerge. Interpret prices as a real‑time consensus signal rather than a final scientific judgment; the contract settles according to its specified measurement and timing rules.
Contracts typically refer to a specified baseline period (commonly an 1850–1900 or similar pre‑industrial average) and will state the exact baseline and dataset in the event’s settlement rules; consult the official contract terms for this market to see which baseline is used for settlement.
Whether a transient exceedance counts depends on the contract’s settlement definition—some contracts use annual global mean temperature, some use multi‑year averages, and some specify sustained exceedance—so check the event’s settlement methodology to know what constitutes a qualifying exceedance.
The event will specify the authoritative datasets or agencies used for settlement (for example, major global temperature products or a designated climate monitoring body); the settlement terms list the exact source and version to be used when determining the outcome.
Significant policy announcements (new emission targets or implementation measures), major emissions data releases, record global temperatures, pronounced El Niño/La Niña events, large volcanic eruptions, or breakthroughs in low‑carbon technologies and deployment can all cause rapid re‑pricing.
Large emitters and their policy choices (e.g., China, the United States, the European Union, India), major fossil fuel producers and energy companies, land‑use and agricultural sectors, and investors whose capital allocation accelerates or slows the energy transition are among the most influential actors.