| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 6 | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| March 7 | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| ✓ March 3 | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $819 | Resolved |
| ✓ March 4 | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $701 | Resolved |
| ✓ March 5 | 76% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $221 | Resolved |
| ✓ March 2 | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $111 | Resolved |
This market asks whether the White House will call a full lid before 6:30PM today during the March 2–7 window; a full lid is an explicit announcement that there will be no further public events or on-camera interactions that day. It matters because a lid signals the administration’s level of public engagement for the remainder of the day and often reacts to breaking developments or schedule choices.
A 'lid' is a routine part of White House press operations used to end a day’s public access; it can be called for mundane scheduling reasons or in response to unexpected events, security concerns, or late-breaking news. Patterns vary by administration, day of week, and the President’s travel and event schedule, so traders watch both the published calendar and real-time reporting to gauge the likelihood of a lid. For a short-dated market covering specific dates, intra-day updates are the primary drivers of changes.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations based on available public signals (schedules, pool reports, official communications) and update as new information arrives. Treat them as a live, consensus snapshot of how observers interpret those signals, not as immutable predictions.
A full lid is an explicit indication from the White House or its press operation that there will be no further public events, on-camera remarks, or press availabilities for the rest of the day. Informal indications of reduced access or a 'partial lid' that still allows an event or briefing do not qualify as a full lid.
Time references for White House activity are conventionally interpreted as Eastern Time (local Washington, D.C. time); check the market’s contract rules or event page for the definitive time-zone specification.
Signals usually come from the press secretary or the White House communications office, formal pool reports from credentialed journalists, or an updated official schedule; sometimes the chief of staff or other senior aides will communicate the decision.
Any public, on-camera appearance, scheduled event, press availability, or live-streamed engagement by the White House or President that begins after 6:30PM ET would indicate that a full lid was not called; purely internal or secured movements without public access generally do not count.
Monitor the White House public schedule, official communications from the press office (including social channels), pool reports and live coverage from credentialed journalists, major wire services (AP, Reuters), and calendar updates; sudden cancellations, added briefings, or real-time pool notes are the fastest-moving signals.