| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the United States will reopen its embassy in Iran; that outcome would represent a major shift in US–Iran relations with implications for diplomacy, regional security, and consular services.
The US and Iran severed diplomatic relations after the 1979 hostage crisis and the US embassy in Tehran has not operated as a full US mission since then. Since 1979 there have been intermittent indirect channels, third‑party protecting powers and episodic negotiations (for example around the Iran nuclear deal), but a full reopening would require formal diplomatic steps and mutual agreement.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of likelihood based on available information and will move as news and events change; they are not certainties and should be interpreted as dynamic signals rather than definitive predictions.
Reopening typically means the formal resumption of a US diplomatic mission in Tehran with accredited staff and consular operations; the market’s official resolution will follow the event terms and designated source(s) named by the exchange for verification.
Resolution will rely on the market operator’s stated sources, which commonly include official announcements from the US State Department and/or Iranian government, complemented by credible reporting and documentation of diplomatic accreditation and functioning consular services.
A 'TBD' close means the exchange has not set a firm market close date; the market may remain open until the operator announces a close or until predefined conditions are met, so participants should monitor official updates from the exchange for timing and resolution rules.
Direct indicators include mutually agreed diplomatic talks, exchange of diplomatic notes, appointment or nomination of ambassadors, reopening or renovation of embassy facilities, and concrete agreements on personnel security and consular functions.
Domestic constraints matter because US administrations and Congress can restrict diplomatic engagement through policy, legislation, funding, or confirmation processes, while Iranian leadership factions, clerical authorities, and parliamentary bodies can block or condition normalization; public opinion and upcoming elections in either country can also shape political feasibility.