| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the U.S. will issue a Level 4 ("Do Not Travel") travel advisory for Taiwan. That outcome matters because a Level 4 advisory signals severe safety or diplomatic deterioration and would affect U.S. citizens, travel, business, and geopolitics in the Indo‑Pacific.
U.S. travel advisories are issued by the Department of State and are updated in response to security, political, or humanitarian developments. Taiwan sits at the center of persistent cross‑strait tension with the People’s Republic of China, and U.S. policy and assessments there reflect military, diplomatic, and intelligence inputs as events evolve. Major incidents, large‑scale violence, or the collapse of normal consular operations are the kinds of developments that have historically driven the highest advisory levels.
Market prices aggregate traders' real‑time expectations about whether an official Level 4 advisory will be issued; they move when new information arrives. These prices are not official government forecasts and should be read as a continuously updating consensus view, not a permanent prediction.
It refers to an official travel advisory at the Department of State's Level 4 designation (commonly labeled "Do Not Travel") that specifically covers Taiwan. Settlement depends on the market's stated rules; check the event page for whether the advisory must be published on travel.state.gov, whether it must apply to all of Taiwan or specific territories, and the timing cutoff.
The Department of State publishes travel advisories, informed by embassy or consular reporting, intelligence assessments, interagency consultation (including Defense and NSC inputs), and on‑the‑ground capacity to provide services to U.S. citizens. Decisions weigh security threats, ability to evacuate or assist citizens, and diplomatic considerations.
Level 4 advisories have historically been used in cases of war, large‑scale violence, or when consular operations are not feasible. Such advisories are uncommon for long‑standing partners in peacetime; issuance typically follows clear, severe deterioration in security or governance rather than routine political tension.
Different markets use different settlement rules: some pay out if a Level 4 advisory was issued at any point before the close, others require it to be in effect at a specified settlement time. Consult the KALSHI event rules and the market's resolution criteria to know which condition applies.
Watch for major PLA operations near Taiwan, reports of strikes or blockade actions, significant disruptions to air and sea travel, official U.S. reductions in consular services or evacuation notices, high‑level U.S. or allied warnings, and credible intelligence reports or leaks indicating imminent large‑scale conflict.