| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn the constitutional right to same-sex marriage. The outcome would have nationwide legal and social consequences for marriage recognition and state authority over marriage law.
In 2015 the Supreme Court recognized a constitutional right to same-sex marriage; overturning that precedent would require the Court to hear and decide a case that explicitly revisits and reverses that precedent. Challenges typically arise from lower-court cases, state legislation or enforcement actions that create legal conflicts, and the Court decides whether to take up those disputes through its certiorari process. Legislative or state-level responses can also shape the practical effects and the litigation path that reaches the high court.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about whether the Court will take action to remove the constitutional protection for same-sex marriage during this market's life. Odds change with new filings, certiorari decisions, Court orders, and major legal or political developments.
It means the Supreme Court issues a final decision that removes the Court-recognized federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage, reversing the prior precedent that established that right.
A litigant must present a case raising the issue, the Court must grant certiorari, the parties and amici file briefs, the Court holds oral argument, and then a majority of justices must vote to reverse the existing precedent in a final opinion.
No; a lower-court ruling does not overturn Supreme Court precedent nationwide. Conflicting lower-court decisions can prompt Supreme Court review, but only a final Supreme Court decision can reverse the constitutional right.
If the Court removes the constitutional right, federal constitutional protection would end; states could then regulate marriage subject to their own constitutions and laws, so effects would vary by state and could lead to further litigation and legislative changes.
With an open close date, markets respond to legal filings, certiorari orders, and other developments; absence of a close date means traders are pricing the likelihood of a future Supreme Court action to overturn the precedent at any point before an administrative resolution or official close.