| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the International Monetary Fund will explicitly declare that the world is in a global recession at any time before 2027. It matters because such a declaration is a high-profile signal that global growth has weakened materially and can affect policy, markets, and risk pricing.
The IMF is a leading source of global economic analysis, publishing regular forecasts (notably the World Economic Outlook) and issuing public statements on global growth. The Fund has historically been cautious with language, reserving labels like 'recession' for pronounced, broad-based downturns; traders watch incoming growth data, synchronized slowdowns, and major shocks for signals. This market captures the odds that the IMF will use explicit recession language in an official release or statement before 2027.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants about the likelihood of an IMF declaration before the cutoff date and change as new data and events occur. Use prices as a real-time signal of market-implied risk, but not as a definitive forecast—monitor underlying news and the IMF's official communications for confirmation.
This market interprets a qualifying event as an explicit statement by the IMF in an official communication (for example, a World Economic Outlook, staff report, or press release) that uses language asserting the existence of a 'global recession' or equivalent unambiguous phrasing; informal commentary or third‑party reports do not qualify unless the IMF itself issues the declaration.
Such a declaration would normally come from the IMF institutionally—via the World Economic Outlook, a formal IMF press release, or an official statement from senior IMF leadership (e.g., the Managing Director); watch those official channels rather than interviews or off‑the‑record remarks.
'Before 2027' means any qualifying IMF declaration dated prior to the start of 2027; final settlement timing and the precise timestamp used are governed by the exchange's contract rules, so check the platform's rulebook or official timelines for exact cutoffs and time zone conventions.
The most likely sources are the World Economic Outlook and related IMF staff reports or press releases that assess global growth; special IMF statements or emergency briefings following major shocks can also contain definitive language about global recession.
If the IMF uses ambiguous wording, settlement will follow the exchange's adjudication process: the platform will reference the exact IMF text and apply its predefined rules for interpretation or seek clarification from the adjudicator; participants should review the market's dispute and adjudication procedures to understand how borderline cases are resolved.