| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1% | 89% | 88¢ | 89¢ | — | $200K | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 40% | 39¢ | 40¢ | — | $151K | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | — | $104K | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 96% | 96¢ | 97¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 3% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Above -0.1% | 97% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
This market asks which CPI outcome will correspond to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' February 2026 Consumer Price Index reading; it matters because the CPI is a principal measure of inflation that affects financial markets, consumer purchasing power, and monetary policy decisions.
The CPI is a monthly index published by the BLS that tracks changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Markets watch each monthly release for signs that inflation is accelerating, decelerating, or remaining stable relative to recent trends; the February 2026 reading will incorporate price movements that occurred during that month and is viewed in context of prior months and policy developments.
Prediction market prices represent the collective assessment of traders about which outcome range will match the official BLS Feb 2026 CPI release; they are a real‑time signal of market beliefs rather than a deterministic forecast.
The BLS sets the CPI release date (typically published in the month following the reference month); this market will settle to the official BLS figure used by the market per KALSHI's settlement rules—check the market page for the exact settlement timing and any platform-specific timing notes.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive range or bracket for the CPI metric specified by the market; consult the market's outcome labels or description on KALSHI to see the exact numeric ranges that determine which outcome wins upon settlement.
The market description on KALSHI specifies which CPI series is being used (for example, headline or core, and whether the outcome is based on a monthly change or a year-over-year change); check that description before trading to confirm which series and measurement period determine settlement.
Fed communications and policy moves can change financial conditions, borrowing costs, and market expectations, which in turn affect asset prices and demand; those changes can alter traders' expectations for the February CPI even though the CPI itself is a measurement of realized price changes documented by the BLS.
Settlement depends on the market's specific rules: some markets settle to the initial official BLS release, others to a later finalized number; consult the KALSHI market rules or the market page to see whether revisions or later BLS adjustments are covered in the settlement policy.