| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.3% | 80% | 83¢ | 88¢ | — | $165K | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 44% | 43¢ | 44¢ | — | $138K | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $118K | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 97% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $109K | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $63K | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks what the year-over-year U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be for February 2026; it matters because CPI YoY is a primary gauge of inflation that influences monetary policy, markets, and cost-of-living adjustments.
CPI YoY measures the change in prices for a fixed basket of goods and services compared with the same month a year earlier. Market expectations for February 2026 will reflect recent trends in energy, food, services, and wages, as well as any base effects from the February 2025 reading.
Market odds/prices summarize traders’ collective expectations about which CPI range or outcome will be the official published value; they change as new economic data and news arrive and should be read as a snapshot of consensus belief at a moment in time.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the official CPI for February 2026 in the month after the reference month; this market will typically settle based on that official BLS release, so the timing of the BLS publication determines when the outcome is confirmed.
The 10 outcomes correspond to predefined ranges or bins for the CPI YoY value for February 2026; the market page lists the precise numeric boundaries for each outcome, so check the event listing to see which range corresponds to each outcome.
Settlement normally uses the official CPI value as published on the BLS release used by the market; whether later revisions affect the settled result depends on the market’s stated settlement rules, so review the event’s rules or FAQ on the platform to confirm how post-publication revisions are handled.
Watch preceding monthly reports such as the January CPI, Producer Price Index, retail sales, import/export prices, employment reports (especially wage data), and weekly oil and inventory reports, plus any Fed communications that could shift inflation expectations.
Participants include macro hedge funds, institutional economists, commodity traders, and retail speculators; large informed trades or rapid shifts in positioning around key data releases can move market prices, but underlying odds generally adjust as new economic information arrives.