| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3.550 | 4% | 4¢ | 7¢ | — | $402K | Trade → |
| Above $3.580 | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $382K | Trade → |
| Above $3.520 | 15% | 13¢ | 15¢ | — | $231K | Trade → |
| Above $3.490 | 51% | 50¢ | 51¢ | — | $183K | Trade → |
| Above $3.400 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $147K | Trade → |
| Above $3.370 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $90K | Trade → |
| Above $3.460 | 95% | 95¢ | 97¢ | — | $88K | Trade → |
| Above $3.340 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $70K | Trade → |
| Above $3.280 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| Above $3.310 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Above $3.430 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Above $3.220 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Above $3.250 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Above $3.190 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Above $3.330 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Above $3.110 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Above $3.120 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Above $3.290 | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Above $3.160 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Above $3.320 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Above $3.130 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Above $3.000 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Above $2.980 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Above $3.030 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $3.010 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $3.090 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $3.100 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $2.990 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $3.300 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $3.020 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $3.050 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above $3.060 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Above $3.070 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Above $3.080 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Above $3.040 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market lets traders express expectations for movements in US retail gasoline prices over the coming week; it matters because short-term price moves affect consumers, businesses, and inflation measures. Traders and observers use the market to aggregate diverse information about near-term supply and demand conditions.
US gasoline prices move on a weekly rhythm tied to crude oil, refinery throughput, inventories, and seasonal demand; recent years have seen larger swings from supply disruptions, weather, and geopolitical events. This event aggregates many possible short-term outcomes into tradable contracts so participants can hedge or speculate ahead of official weekly price reports.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of participants about which outcome is most likely given available information and will change as new data arrives; interpret them as a dynamic, consensus signal rather than a definitive forecast.
The market's event page and contract rules define the precise start and end times for "this week"; because closes are listed as TBD, check the market description or announcements for the settlement reference period used to determine the outcome.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined price bracket or categorical result listed on the market page; the event's resolution method will use a specified published data source (see the market rules) and the value from that source at the announced settlement time to determine which outcome wins.
The contract specifies the authoritative source used for settlement—common sources include weekly retail price averages or government datasets; consult the event's settlement rules to see which provider and which exact release (and timestamp) will be used.
Volume indicates how much capital has changed hands and is a proxy for liquidity and participant interest: higher volume typically means tighter spreads and easier execution, while lower volume can lead to wider spreads and greater price sensitivity to individual trades.
Late-breaking factors include unexpected refinery outages, sudden changes in crude supply, major weather events affecting demand or logistics, release of inventory or consumption data, and policy or geopolitical announcements; large trades or shifts in trader positioning can also move market prices quickly.