| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 70,000 | 33% | 33¢ | 34¢ | — | $59K | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 89% | 88¢ | 89¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 23% | 22¢ | 23¢ | — | $50K | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 19% | 18¢ | 19¢ | — | $41K | Trade → |
| Above -25,000 | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 27% | 26¢ | 27¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 50% | 49¢ | 50¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 72% | 72¢ | 73¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 39% | 38¢ | 39¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 68% | 69¢ | 70¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 61% | 60¢ | 61¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 79% | 78¢ | 79¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks which headline jobs figure will be reported for February 2026; it matters because the monthly employment report is a key indicator of labor-market strength and influences markets and policy expectations.
The outcome will be based on the official national employment report for February 2026 (the market page will specify the exact statistical agency and series). Historically, monthly jobs releases combine survey-based payroll counts, unemployment and participation measures and are sometimes revised in subsequent months, so single-month prints can move sentiment and asset prices even if later changes occur.
Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective assessments of which numeric range the headline jobs metric will fall into; they are a real-time gauge of market expectations, not a definitive causal explanation.
The market settles to the official national employment report specified on the market page (for U.S.-focused markets this is typically the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation for February 2026); check the market description to confirm the exact series and source.
The official monthly jobs report is generally published on the designated release date by the relevant statistics agency (for the U.S. this is usually the first Friday of the following month); the market settles according to the exchange's settlement rules after the agency posts the official figure, so consult the market page for precise settlement timing.
The 13 outcomes are discrete, mutually exclusive ranges defined by the market for the headline jobs metric (typically the month-to-month payroll change); each outcome corresponds to a specific numeric band shown on the market page.
Revisions to prior months are released periodically and can change the apparent trend; treat the initial February print as one data point in a series and monitor concurrent revisions and subsequent releases for a fuller picture of labor-market momentum.
Relevant inputs include weekly unemployment insurance claims, private payroll estimates (e.g., payroll processors or ADP-style reports), PMI and retail sales data, major corporate hiring or layoff announcements, and any disruptive weather or labor actions occurring during the survey period.