| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the U.S. House of Representatives will hold a formal floor vote on legislation that would ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks. The outcome matters because a House vote signals legislative momentum on congressional ethics reforms and can influence public trust and rulemaking around lawmakers' financial conflicts.
Concerns about members trading on nonpublic information have prompted recurring proposals, from disclosure tightening under the STOCK Act to more ambitious bans or mandated divestment. Past efforts have stalled or been narrowed by institutional barriers — including House scheduling authority, divided party incentives, and debates over constitutionality and enforcement mechanisms. Whether the House brings a ban to a floor vote depends as much on political calculus and leadership priorities as on the bill text itself.
Market prices reflect participants' aggregated expectations about whether a qualifying House floor vote will occur before the market closes; they update as new information (committee actions, leadership statements, scandals) arrives. These prices are signals of market belief, not guarantees of what will happen.
A qualifying event is a formal, recorded roll-call floor vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on a bill or amendment whose operative text would ban members from trading individual stocks; committee votes, informal voice votes, or non-binding resolutions generally do not count.
This market concerns whether the House holds a formal floor vote on a proposal that would ban members from trading stocks; it does not by itself require that the measure pass or become law unless the contract language explicitly states otherwise.
The relevant time window is up to this market's official close time (listed on the market page); resolution will be based on whether a qualifying roll-call vote occurred in the House prior to that close, using official congressional records.
Qualified texts are bills or floor amendments that would prohibit members from trading individual equities (including measures requiring divestment, placing securities into blind trusts, or explicit prohibitions on individual stock ownership by members); bills that only change disclosure, reporting timelines, or recusal processes typically would not meet the market's definition.
The House Speaker and majority leadership control scheduling; committee chairs must report legislation; bill sponsors and bipartisan coalitions can build momentum; ethics committees, public advocacy groups, media coverage, and high-profile scandals also influence whether leadership brings a measure to the floor.