| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the U.S. House of Representatives will adopt articles of impeachment against any federal judge within the calendar year. It matters because House impeachment is the constitutional mechanism that can remove judges for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” and such actions carry legal and political consequences.
Under the Constitution the House has the sole power to impeach federal officials, including Article III judges; conviction and removal require a separate Senate trial. Judicial impeachments are historically rare but have occurred; outcomes depend on the strength of allegations, committee investigations, and the House majority’s priorities. Political dynamics, ongoing investigations, and referrals from other agencies often shape whether impeachment proceedings move forward.
Market prices aggregate traders’ views about how likely the House is to impeach a federal judge this year; they move as new evidence, referrals, or political developments emerge. Treat prices as a real‑time signal that can change quickly when committees, prosecutors, or media reporting introduce material information.
This refers to an Article III federal judge (district court, court of appeals, or Supreme Court) who is a sitting federal judge; it does not include state judges, administrative law judges, or retired judges unless they are serving in an active federal Article III capacity.
Impeachment proceedings can begin with a member’s resolution, referral from a committee, or a committee investigation; ultimately a majority vote of the full House is required to adopt articles of impeachment.
No. Impeachment by the House is equivalent to an indictment; removal from office requires conviction in the U.S. Senate by the constitutionally required vote.
Yes. The market is asking whether the House will impeach any federal judge during the year; multiple impeachments in one year would still satisfy the event but could influence market movement depending on timing and political context.
Typically 'this year' refers to the current calendar year; final settlement will be based on the market operator’s rules and published closing criteria, which determine the exact cutoff date and what evidence the market accepts as official impeachment.