| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will convene an unscheduled emergency meeting at any point during calendar year 2026. Such a meeting would indicate an urgent monetary policy or financial-stability response and could produce fast, large market moves.
The Federal Reserve normally follows a preannounced schedule of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings but retains authority to call unscheduled sessions when urgent developments arise. Emergency meetings are rare and typically occur in response to acute financial stress, major macroeconomic shocks, or severe disruptions to credit markets.
Prices in this market reflect traders' aggregated, real-time views about the chance of an emergency meeting in 2026 and update as new information arrives; they are not official Fed forecasts but a market-based signal of evolving expectations.
An emergency meeting means any unscheduled Federal Reserve meeting publicly announced by the Federal Reserve (Chair, Board, or FOMC) that is not part of the Fed's preannounced FOMC calendar and is held to address urgent developments during calendar year 2026.
The Federal Reserve Chair, in coordination with the Board of Governors and FOMC participants (including regional Fed presidents), has the authority to convene unscheduled meetings when the Fed deems swift action necessary for monetary policy or financial stability.
'In 2026' refers to the calendar year January 1 through December 31, 2026; the contract resolves based on whether an eligible emergency meeting is publicly announced at any time during that period.
Triggers include acute banking-sector failures or runs, rapid seizing up of short-term funding markets, extreme and sudden inflationary or deflationary shocks, or other severe financial-market dislocations or geopolitical crises that threaten economic stability.
Monitor official Fed communications (speeches, press releases), updates to the FOMC schedule, high-frequency market indicators (overnight rates, repo pressure, credit spreads), major bank headlines, and authoritative news sources; sharp changes in those signals tend to move market assessments quickly.