| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut larger than 25 basis points within the current calendar year. The outcome matters because a larger-than-standard cut would signal a significant shift in monetary policy with implications for borrowing costs, asset prices, and economic growth.
The Fed sets short-term interest rates to pursue its dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. After periods of tightening or elevated rates, the Fed may move to ease policy if inflation sustainably moderates and economic conditions weaken; the size of any cut depends on the Fed's assessment of risks and the balance of incoming data. Market participants watch inflation measures, labor-market indicators, and Fed communications for clues about the timing and magnitude of easing.
Prediction market prices aggregate participants' views and update as new data, Fed communications, and geopolitical events arrive. Use prices as a real-time indicator of market beliefs, but consult official Fed releases and the market's resolution rules for definitive outcomes.
Unless the market's official rules say otherwise, 'this year' refers to the current calendar year (January 1 through December 31); check the Kalshi event page for the definitive resolution window.
Interpretation can vary by market wording; many markets mean a single Fed action that reduces the target federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at once, but you should confirm the event's resolution criteria on the platform.
This type of event typically references official changes to the federal funds target or target range announced by the Federal Open Market Committee; consult the event rules to confirm the exact rate series used for resolution.
Any official change to the target federal funds rate announced by the Fed is normally relevant, including intermeeting moves, but final determination follows the market operator's published resolution policy.
The market operator (Kalshi) is responsible for resolving the event based on the platform's published rules and official Fed communications; disputes and clarifications follow the platform’s resolution and appeals procedures.