| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the 25th Amendment will be invoked at any point while Donald Trump is serving as President. It matters because invocation transfers presidential authority and would have major constitutional and political consequences.
The 25th Amendment provides procedures for the temporary or permanent transfer of presidential power; Section 3 covers voluntary transfers by the President, while Section 4 covers involuntary transfers when the President is judged unable to discharge duties. Section 3 has been used for routine medical procedures in prior presidencies, but Section 4 (involuntary removal) has never been fully implemented and involves clear procedural and political hurdles.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations about whether the amendment will be invoked, but they are not guarantees — they update as new developments (medical disclosures, public statements, cabinet moves, crises) occur. Treat market information as a real‑time barometer of perceived risk and attention rather than a definitive outcome.
Under the Constitution, the Vice President and a majority of the principal officers of the executive departments (commonly understood as the Cabinet) can initiate a Section 4 declaration; the President can initiate a voluntary transfer under Section 3 by transmitting a written declaration.
Yes — events invoking either Section 3 (voluntary transfer of power) or Section 4 (involuntary transfer) would typically be considered use of the amendment for the purposes of this market, unless the contract document specifies otherwise.
If the Vice President and a majority of principal officers declare the President unable, the Vice President immediately assumes the powers as Acting President; the President may send a written declaration contesting inability, and if the Vice President and majority repeat their declaration the dispute goes to Congress, which must assemble and decide within a statutorily defined window requiring a two‑thirds vote in both chambers to keep the Vice President as Acting President.
Congress would resolve factual disputes if the President contests a Section 4 declaration, needing supermajorities in both houses to sustain an involuntary removal; courts could be asked to adjudicate procedural or interpretive disputes, creating additional legal uncertainty and potential delays.
Acute medical emergencies that impair the President’s ability to perform duties, clear and persistent cognitive incapacity documented by medical professionals, or extraordinary situations where the Vice President and Cabinet judge continuation of duty to be untenable are the primary triggers; political calculations and public pressure also shape whether formal steps are taken.