| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ending Jun 4, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will complete the constitutionally defined presidential term. The question matters because whether a president serves a full term affects policy continuity, domestic stability, and international relations.
Under South Korea's constitution the presidency is a single five-year term with no immediate re-election; the precise start and end dates are set by the inauguration and the legal term length. Historically, South Korean presidencies have been shortened by resignations, impeachments, criminal prosecutions, health issues, or rare violent events, so multiple legal, political, and security risks can influence tenure. The market’s listed close date is TBD, so resolution will depend on the contract language and official records.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about whether the president will remain in office through the official end of the term and move in response to new information. To understand what a price implies in practice, follow relevant news (legal actions, health updates, parliamentary moves, security incidents) and the market's rulebook rather than treating prices as fixed forecasts.
Serving the full term means remaining the official, sworn-in president from the inauguration date through the scheduled end of the five-year term as recorded by South Korean government records. Temporary medical leaves or short periods with an acting official generally do not count as failure to serve the full term unless the president is permanently removed, resigns, or dies before the official end date.
Impeachment begins in the National Assembly and, if passed, results in suspension pending review by the Constitutional Court; the president is removed only if the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment. For the market, an upheld impeachment that leads to removal before the term end means the president did not serve the full term; allegations or an ongoing impeachment process alone do not automatically resolve the market.
An indictment or conviction does not automatically remove a president. Removal requires the legal and constitutional mechanisms applicable in each case (e.g., conviction leading to legal disqualification or an impeachment process resulting in removal). The market outcome depends on whether the legal process results in the president leaving office before the term ends.
Temporary incapacity that leads to an acting president but is followed by the original president resuming office before the term expires is typically treated as having served the full term. If incapacity results in permanent removal, resignation, or an inability to resume duties by the official end date, the president would not be considered to have served the full term.
The market will rely on the contract's resolution criteria and accepted evidence per the exchange’s rulebook, typically official government records (inauguration and term end dates), public statements from the presidency or relevant ministries, and Constitutional Court or National Assembly decisions. Traders should consult the event's rule text and the exchange's dispute-resolution procedures for specifics.