| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before June 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick will vacate her U.S. House seat before the next federal midterm Election Day. Early departures matter because they trigger vacancies, potential special elections, and can change local and national political dynamics.
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is the member of the U.S. House representing a Florida district and first won her seat in the 2022 cycle. Members of Congress sometimes leave before the end of a term for reasons including appointments, personal or health issues, legal developments, or death; those departures have procedural and political consequences at both the district and House levels.
Prediction-market prices aggregate participants' views and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time reflection of collective expectations, not guarantees of what will happen.
This market treats a permanent vacancy as 'leaving': voluntary resignation, death, expulsion by the House, or acceptance of an incompatible federal/state office; temporary absences that do not create a vacancy do not count.
'Before the midterms' refers to any time prior to the next federal midterm Election Day (the general election held in November of the midterm year), i.e., the market is asking whether a departure occurs prior to that Election Day.
U.S. House vacancies are filled under federal and state law; in Florida, a vacancy typically triggers a special election called by the governor, with timing and procedures set by state authorities.
A vacancy reduces the district’s representation until a successor is seated and may affect committee assignments and the narrow balance of the chamber depending on timing and the outcome of any special election.
Watch for an official resignation or appointment announcement, credible reporting on health or legal matters, filings or filings withdrawals for other offices, statements from the member or local party, and any formal House or state actions that could precipitate a vacancy.