| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether President Trump will be impeached during his term; the outcome matters because impeachment is a formal constitutional process with major political and governance implications.
Impeachment in the U.S. is the House of Representatives' formal adoption of articles accusing a president of high crimes or misdemeanors; conviction and removal require a separate Senate trial and vote. Historically impeachment is relatively rare but politically consequential; Donald Trump was impeached during prior proceedings, demonstrating that high-profile presidents can face multiple impeachment efforts under contested circumstances.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about whether the House will adopt articles of impeachment while the president is in office, incorporating news, investigations, legislative dynamics, and public sentiment. Always consult the contract page for the precise settlement definition used by the exchange.
For this market, 'impeached' refers to the House of Representatives formally adopting one or more articles of impeachment against the president while he is in office. Refer to the exchange's official contract terms for the exact settlement criteria and any permitted evidence sources.
No. Impeachment (a House adoption of articles) is separate from Senate conviction or removal; this market concerns whether the House adopts articles during the term. Whether the Senate subsequently convicts does not change whether an impeachment occurred.
Typically the market would settle based on whether any qualifying House vote adopting articles occurs during the term; additional attempts or votes generally do not change that outcome. Confirm with the market's published settlement rules.
If no qualifying House adoption of articles occurs while the president is in office, resignation or departure beforehand would generally mean the market does not settle as 'impeached.' Check the contract for any special provisions about vacancies or post-office actions.
The event page lists the close as TBD; the exchange will update the contract page with a closing time and settlement procedure. Settlement is determined by the exchange according to its official rules and the specified authoritative sources documenting House action.