| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether Pete Hegseth will formally announce his departure from the role of Secretary of Defense. It serves as a sentiment gauge for political stability within the executive branch's cabinet appointments.
Pete Hegseth's nomination and subsequent tenure have been subject to intense public and congressional scrutiny. As a high-profile cabinet member, any decision regarding his resignation or replacement would carry significant implications for Department of Defense policy, legislative relations, and administration continuity. This market resolves based on official announcements or confirmation of his exit.
Market valuations reflect the collective assessment of political analysts and traders regarding the likelihood of Hegseth's continued service versus a voluntary or forced exit.
An announcement is defined as an official statement from the individual, the White House, or an authorized Department of Defense representative confirming the departure.
Yes, any official notification that the Secretary is vacating his office, whether via resignation or removal, fulfills the condition for a departure.
The market specifically monitors his status as Secretary of Defense; if he is not confirmed, the timeline and nature of his departure are governed by the specific market rules regarding his tenure.
This market resolves based on official, confirmed reports from credible news outlets or government sources, not speculative rumors or social media conjecture.
The market remains open until an official announcement is made or until the expiration date defined in the market contract occurs.