| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act, ACA) will be fully repealed before 2029. The outcome matters because repeal or a court nullification would have large effects on coverage, federal spending, insurance markets, and politics.
The ACA was enacted in 2010 and has survived legislative and legal challenges since then, including a major repeal effort in 2017 and multiple Supreme Court cases. Repeal can occur by Congress passing and the president signing legislation that removes core statutory provisions, or by a final court decision that invalidates the law nationwide; the legislative pathway is shaped by majority control, Senate rules, and the use of reconciliation. State-level actions and administrative changes can alter implementation but typically do not amount to a nationwide repeal.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about the chance of repeal given current information and update as events unfold; they are not guarantees but indicators of how participants weigh competing risks and timelines. Use them alongside political and legal analysis rather than as definitive forecasts.
Generally, this refers to a final, enforceable elimination of the ACA's core statutory framework nationwide before 2029, either through enacted federal legislation that removes key provisions or a final judicial decision that nullifies the law across the country; consult the contract text for the definitive legal definition used by this market.
Partial changes to individual provisions typically do not constitute full repeal unless the contract defines those changes as sufficient; most market interpretations focus on removal of the law's core structure rather than isolated amendments.
Yes — a final, nationwide court ruling that invalidates the ACA would generally satisfy a repeal outcome, but the timing of appeals, stays, and implementation matters for whether it occurs before the 2029 cutoff.
No — a vetoed bill is not enacted; repeal typically requires either a signed bill that becomes law or a final court decision that removes the law, so an enacted override would be needed to change that status.
Elections determine which party controls Congress and the presidency, changing the legislative pathways available (for example, whether reconciliation is usable or a filibuster can be overcome) and therefore materially affect the feasibility and timing of any repeal effort.