| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will become operational. The question matters because its opening would affect European gas routing, energy security, and geopolitics.
Nord Stream 2 is a Baltic Sea pipeline built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany; although the project reached advanced construction stages, its operational status has been constrained by regulatory reviews, international sanctions, and security concerns. Subsequent diplomatic disputes and reports of damage have further complicated prospects for putting the pipeline into service, leaving its future dependent on technical, legal, and political developments.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about whether the pipeline will be declared operational according to this market's resolution criteria; they change as new regulatory decisions, diplomatic moves, technical inspections, or security incidents occur. Consult the exchange's rules for the exact definition of what counts as 'open' for settlement.
‘Open’ generally means the pipeline is declared operational and begins transporting gas in a manner that meets the market's stated settlement criteria; check KALSHI's event rules for the precise operational or declaration conditions that will determine resolution.
A TBD close means the exchange has not set a final trading cutoff or resolution date; traders should monitor the exchange for an announced close and follow regulatory, technical, and diplomatic developments that could trigger settlement once a close date is set.
Key actors include the pipeline operator and owner(s), Russian gas suppliers, German and EU regulators responsible for certification and safety, national governments that can impose or lift sanctions, and technical teams responsible for inspections and repairs.
Credible damage reports typically introduce repair timelines, safety inspections, and potential investigations, all of which can delay or prevent opening; the scale of damage and access for repairs are central to estimating how long operations would be postponed.
A supplier statement is an important step but not sufficient on its own: operational flow also requires regulatory approvals, confirmation of the pipeline's technical fitness, and no overriding legal or sanction barriers, so multiple conditions must be satisfied before the pipeline can actually start transporting gas.