| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Representative Neal Dunn will vacate his House seat prior to the upcoming federal midterm election. The outcome matters for voters in his district, party planning, and whether a special election would be required to fill the vacancy.
Neal Dunn is an incumbent U.S. Representative from Florida who first took office after the 2016 election and has served multiple terms; he is a physician by training and a member of the Republican caucus. Members of Congress sometimes leave midterm for reasons such as appointment to other positions, health issues, legal problems, retirement, or death, any of which can trigger a vacancy and change the political calculus in the affected district.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations about whether Dunn will leave before the midterms and should be read as a snapshot of collective belief given available information, not a guarantee. Look at price movement and trading volume as signals of how sentiment changes in response to news, while remembering that new developments can rapidly change the landscape.
Leaving Congress means Neal Dunn no longer holds his House seat before the midterm election due to resignation, death, expulsion, or acceptance of an incompatible office; an announced intention to leave that does not result in vacating the seat before the cutoff does not count.
'Before the midterms' refers to the date of the federal midterm general election in November; the market’s official resolution rules will state the precise cutoff used to determine the outcome.
No; an announcement of not seeking reelection does not itself constitute leaving Congress — the market requires that he actually vacate the seat prior to the midterm cutoff.
Yes; accepting another office that requires resignation from the House and thereby vacating the seat before the midterm cutoff would count as leaving Congress for the purposes of this event.
Special elections or interim appointments are procedural consequences of a vacancy but do not change the binary question: the market resolves based on whether Dunn vacated his seat before the cutoff, regardless of how the vacancy is subsequently filled.