| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether members of the U.S. Congress will be legally banned from trading stocks; the question matters because a ban would change incentives for lawmakers, affect public trust, and alter how personal financial interests are managed in federal government.
Efforts to restrict or regulate congressional stock trading date back years, including the STOCK Act (2012) which tightened disclosure requirements but stopped short of an outright ban. Proposals since then range from mandatory blind trusts to criminal penalties for trades; progress depends on bill sponsors, committee action, chamber floor votes, leadership priorities, and potential executive or judicial responses.
Market prices reflect participants' collective assessment of whether such a ban will be enacted under the contract's settlement definition; those assessments can change quickly as legislative developments, leadership positions, or court rulings occur.
Settlement typically depends on the contract's wording; in this market a 'ban' generally means passage and enactment of a statute or chamber rule that prohibits members from owning or initiating trades in individual stocks as defined by the contract—check the market contract page for the exact legal threshold used for settlement.
The three outcomes are designed to cover distinct settlement possibilities (for example: a full statutory ban enacted, no ban enacted, or a partial/procedural outcome); consult the market's outcome descriptions for the exact definitions that determine which outcome resolves.
A ban would typically require passage by Congress (House and Senate) and the president's signature or the adoption of chamber rules; key steps include bill introduction, committee hearings, floor votes, reconciliation if chambers pass different text, and any executive or judicial actions that affect enforceability.
Reported volume reflects how much money participants have risked in this market and indicates liquidity and interest, not the likelihood of outcomes; higher volume generally means easier entry and exit but does not substitute for following news and legislative signals.
With no fixed close date, watch bill filings, committee schedules, published hearing dates, leadership statements, major floor votes, White House positions, and court rulings; significant real-world developments or a formal settlement date announced by the platform will drive market activity and eventual resolution.